Bankruptcies Up, Workouts Quiet: The 2026 Restructuring Playbook

When rates rose, the first damage was hidden. The second damage is showing up in filings and restructurings.

U.S. bankruptcy filings increased in the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, rising 10.6% year-over-year, according to the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. Corporate distress has also been a theme across markets, with higher rates pressuring weaker cash flows and increasing expectations of continued bankruptcy activity and out-of-court restructurings.

But the most important story in 2026 isn’t just “more bankruptcies.” It’s how companies are trying to avoid them: extensions, amendments, rescue capital, and liability management deals designed to buy time.

That creates a playbook for operators:

1. Get ahead of maturity walls before the market senses weakness.

2. Model your refi gap under multiple rate and revenue scenarios.

3. Build lender trust with consistent reporting and credible plans.

4. Know your rescue menu (private credit, pref, sale-leaseback, asset-backed lending).

5. Use operational fixes to make the story believable (cost resets, contract repricing, asset rationalization).

For real assets, the lesson is even sharper: refinancing is now underwriting the asset’s business model, not just its appraisal. The “good deals” are the ones with stable demand, clear capex plans, and a credible path to coverage.

In 2026, restructuring literacy is not a specialist skill. It’s management competence.

Get asset-by-asset playbooks (and negotiation scripts) for extensions, amendments, rescue capital, and incentive layering.